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17

Draiocht

6yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 43

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Got off the mark over in weak affair at Gowran (1m, soft) last October. Promising reappearance when beaten just under 4 lengths over same C&D last month. Drawn wide and still 3 lb above his winning mark, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA44 @ Naas 23/07/2025 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 44 · 1m Yie 126 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 44 par23/0744OR 44BHA43 @ Leopardstown 07/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 43 · 7f42y Goo 125 · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 43 parBHA43 @ Cork 14/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 43 · 1m Goo 125 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 43 par14/0843OR 43BHA41 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 41 · 7f195y Goo 123 · beat its mark26/08/2025 · OR 41 parBHA40 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 40 · 7f Sft 122 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 40 par10/0940OR 40BHA40 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 40 · 1m30y Sft 122 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m44y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 40 par9/1040OR 40BHA45 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m75y Hvy 129 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 45 parBHA43 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 43 · 1m40y Gd 125 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 43 par15/0743OR 43projClass-projected finish: 8th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA434th4th0
2025-10-20Gowran ParkBHA4511th11th0
2025-10-09ThurlesBHA409th9th0
2025-10-06KillarneyBHA401st1st0
2025-09-10CorkBHA408th8th0
2025-08-26BellewstownBHA414th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0726/089/1015/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/202515th20/10%13%+0.13
07/08/202513th33/10%29%+0.29
14/08/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20254th16/116%79%+0.63
10/09/20258th12/137%65%+0.28
06/10/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
09/10/20259th11/271%38%-0.33
20/10/202511th11/142%23%-0.19
15/07/20264th33/10%75%+0.75