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9

Dress Dance

4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 52

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#16

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

€150,000 Dandy Man filly. Again no impact (may have needed the run) upped in distance on handicap bow at Cork (10.5f, 22/1) in May. Longer trips quickly abandoned and now returns from 11 weeks off in cheekpieces/tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 10.8)

Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 19/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m Sft 12319/04C?C8 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f58y Goo 12916/09C8C8 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 7f Yie 12911/10C8BHA54 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 54 · 1m2f90y Sft 136 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 54 par19/0554OR 54projClass-projected finish: 18th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-19CorkBHA5412th12th0
2025-10-11Naas?13th13th0
2025-09-16Punchestown?13th13th0
2025-04-19Cork?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0416/0911/1019/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20255th28/10%20%+0.20
16/09/202513th40/10%8%+0.08
11/10/202513th150/10%20%+0.20
19/05/202612th22/10%8%+0.08