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2

Imperial Dream

6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 59

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Chased home some fairly useful sorts when hitting the frame in pair of Dundalk handicaps (7f) last autumn. Continued quiet start to this year on rare start over 5f at Curragh (50/1) latest. Back over a more suitable distance and potentially interesting on first start in a 0-60.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Curragh 12/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 140 · below its mark12/04/2025 · OR 80 par12/0480OR 80BHA77 @ Fairyhouse 09/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 7f Gd 128 · below its mark09/07/2025 · OR 77 parBHA76 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 136 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 76 par9/0876OR 76BHA70 @ Dundalk 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 70 · 7f Std 140 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 70 parBHA71 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 71 · 7f Std 141 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 71 par24/1071OR 71BHA71 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f Std 131 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 71 parBHA70 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 140 · below its mark04/05/2026 · OR 70 par4/0570OR 70BHA67 @ Fairyhouse 08/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 137 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 67 parBHA63 @ Curragh 18/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 18 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 123 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 63 par18/0763OR 63projClass-projected finish: 16th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18CurraghBHA6315th15th0
2026-07-08FairyhouseBHA6713th13th0
2026-05-04CurraghBHA7015th15th0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA7110th10th0
2025-10-24DundalkBHA714th4th0
2025-09-19DundalkBHA702nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0419/094/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20257th14/126%50%+0.24
09/07/20255th11/142%20%-0.22
09/08/20256th18/15%58%+0.53
19/09/20252nd7/282%92%+0.11
24/10/20254th4/179%77%-0.02
14/11/202510th16/116%0%-0.16
04/05/202615th22/10%26%+0.26
08/07/202613th66/10%14%+0.14
18/07/202615th50/10%18%+0.18