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18

Master Garvey

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 40

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#9

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Infrequent winner who got back to form when 4¼ lengths third in first-time blinkers at Gowran (9.5f). Claims if headgear has same effect on rare start over 7f.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA43 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 43 · 1m2f150y Std 125 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 43 par30/0143OR 43BHA42 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 42 · 1m Std 124 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 42 parC9 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 41 · 7f180y Sft 123 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 41 par9/04C9OR 41BHA40 @ Dundalk 23/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 40 · 1m Std 122 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 40 par20/0540OR 40BHA40 @ Fairyhouse 05/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f190y Goo 123 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 22 · OR 40 · 1m1f Goo 122 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 40 par9/0740OR 40BHA40 @ Naas 22/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 18 · OR 40 · 1m Goo 122 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Gowran Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f110y Goo 122 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 40 par25/0740OR 40projClass-projected finish: 5th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Gowran ParkBHA403rd3rd0
2026-07-22NaasBHA4011th11th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA405th5th0
2026-06-05FairyhouseBHA407th7th0
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA405th5th0
2026-04-23DundalkBHA407th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0123/049/0725/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20265th13/266%67%+0.01
01/04/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
09/04/20268th7/163%53%-0.10
23/04/20267th4/179%33%-0.46
20/05/20265th12/137%73%+0.36
05/06/20267th12/137%54%+0.17
09/07/20265th22/10%81%+0.81
22/07/202611th14/126%41%+0.15
25/07/20263rd6/168%83%+0.15