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13

Mogwli

9yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 47

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#14

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cashed in off reduced mark in refitted visor at Bellewstown (1m, soft) in October. Hasn't fired this year and hard to be confident with usual visor back on (replacing blinkers).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA56 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 56 · 1m1f58y Goo 138 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 56 par16/0956OR 56BHA56 @ Listowel 23/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 56 · 7f15y Hvy 139 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 56 parBHA56 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 56 · 7f205y Sft 138 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 56 par1/1056OR 56BHA61 @ Curragh 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 26 · OR 61 · 7f Yie 131 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 61 parBHA62 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 62 · 7f Hvy 122 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 62 par2/1162OR 62BHA62 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 26 · OR 62 · 1m Hvy 132 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 62 parBHA61 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 23 · OR 61 · 7f Sft 131 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 61 par28/0361OR 61BHA58 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f Yie 140 · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 parBHA52 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 52 · 1m31y Gd 134 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 52 par12/0552OR 52projClass-projected finish: 15th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-12KillarneyBHA5213th13th0
2026-04-15LeopardstownBHA5811th11th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA6112th12th0
2026-03-15CurraghBHA6214th14th0
2025-11-02CurraghBHA6215th15th0
2025-10-16CurraghBHA615th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0916/1028/0312/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength13%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd25/10%92%+0.92
23/09/20255th9/153%71%+0.19
01/10/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
16/10/20255th33/10%84%+0.84
02/11/202515th33/10%26%+0.26
15/03/202614th20/10%48%+0.48
28/03/202612th33/10%50%+0.50
15/04/202611th22/10%9%+0.09
12/05/202613th50/10%14%+0.14