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3

Pete's Dream

4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 59

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in relatively comfortable fashion in this grade at Fairyhouse penultimate start (bled subsequently). Subsequent third at Killarney was a solid effort, and he should go well from a handy draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA66 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 66 · 6f Sft 125 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 66 par10/0966OR 66BHA63 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 63 · 1m Hvy 129 · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 63 parBHA61 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 22 · OR 61 · 1m Hvy 128 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 61 par21/1061OR 61BHA60 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 141 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 60 parBHA57 @ Dundalk 28/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 139 · beat its mark28/01/2026 · OR 57 par28/0157OR 57BHA56 @ Dundalk 13/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 56 · 7f Std 138 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 56 parBHA54 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 54 par19/0654OR 54BHA53 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 53 · 1m160y Goo 135 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 53 parBHA58 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 58 · 1m40y Gd 140 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 58 par15/0758OR 58projClass-projected finish: 1st of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA583rd3rd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA531st1st0
2026-06-19Down RoyalBHA544th4th0
2026-02-13DundalkBHA569th9th0
2026-01-28DundalkBHA578th8th0
2025-11-19DundalkBHA606th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0919/1119/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20257th14/126%68%+0.42
22/09/20256th8/158%64%+0.06
21/10/202511th8/158%52%-0.06
19/11/20256th9/276%62%-0.15
28/01/20268th11/271%46%-0.25
13/02/20269th13/266%33%-0.32
19/06/20264th17/255%70%+0.15
01/07/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
15/07/20263rd9/153%83%+0.31