IvyArcIvyArc
14

Pure Valour

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 47

Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y

#17

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#17

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held making handicap debut in first-time tongue strap at Fairyhouse (8.5f) last month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 7f Hvy 14215/03C8C8 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m Std 13027/03C8C8 @ Gowran Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f100y Goo 1425/05C8BHA47 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m160y Goo 129 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 47 par1/0747OR 47projClass-projected finish: 17th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA4712th12th0
2026-05-05Gowran Park?6th6th0
2026-03-27Dundalk?7th7th0
2026-03-15Curragh?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0327/035/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20269th80/10%20%+0.20
27/03/20267th150/10%45%+0.45
05/05/20266th150/10%29%+0.29
01/07/202612th33/10%0%0.00