15
Smaoineamh Sile
8yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 47
Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 8.4)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA48 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA48 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-13 | Dundalk | BHA54 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dundalk | BHA54 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Dundalk | BHA56 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 23% | -0.35 |
| 13/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 07/11/2025 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 8% | -0.34 |
| 09/12/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 09/01/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 23% | -0.03 |
| 13/01/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 16/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |