20
Suerte
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 56
Leopardstown · Carnival de Leop Handicap (0-60) · 7f 42y
#18
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA56 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA61 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bellewstown | BHA62 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Dundalk | BHA64 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Roscommon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Cork | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/05/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 28/06/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 19/08/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 12/11/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/05/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 03/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |