16
Ardeur
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 61
Leopardstown · Renault Ireland Handicap · 1m 1f
#20
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#20
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 12.5 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA66 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Gowran Park | BHA72 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA74 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA76 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Punchestown | BHA77 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish24th of 24
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 24th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/05/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 16/09/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/10/2025 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/04/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 18/06/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |