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3

Bella Colombia

5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 67

Leopardstown · Renault Ireland Handicap · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

85/40

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended lengthy losing run at Dundalk in March and added to her tally with comfortable success in 13-runner handicap at Killarney (1m, good, 85/40) 22 days ago by 1½ lengths from Jasmine Affanalis. 7 lb higher now but must enter calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 142 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 60 par9/0160OR 60BHA61 @ Dundalk 16/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Dundalk 06/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f Std 121 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 61 par6/0261OR 61BHA59 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 59 · 1m Std 141 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 parBHA62 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 62 · 1m50y Yie 132 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 62 par25/0462OR 62BHA62 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 62 · 7f94y Goo 132 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 parBHA60 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m160y Goo 142 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 60 par1/0760OR 60BHA60 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Std 142 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 60 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/0760OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA601st1st0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA603rd3rd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA602nd2nd0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA625th5th0
2026-04-25LimerickBHA623rd3rd0
2026-03-06DundalkBHA591st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/016/031/0715/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 24
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/20262nd50/10%92%+0.92
16/01/20266th28/10%62%+0.62
06/02/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
06/03/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
25/04/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
18/05/20265th6/168%71%+0.03
01/07/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
12/07/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03
15/07/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11