5
Guy's Girl
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 65
Leopardstown · Renault Ireland Handicap · 1m 1f
#22
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#22
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA65 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA66 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fairyhouse | BHA69 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Dundalk | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Dundalk | BHA75 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 24
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 24. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/06/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 25/06/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 31/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 07/07/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |