IvyArcIvyArc
13

Jasmine Affanalis

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62

Leopardstown · Renault Ireland Handicap · 1m 1f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended last campaign with victory at Tipperary and back to that sort of form when creditable 1½ lengths second of 13 to Bella Colombia in handicap at Killarney (1m, good) 22 days ago. One of the likelier contenders.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA55 @ Killarney 15/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m30y Yie 135 · beat its mark15/07/2025 · OR 55 par15/0755OR 55BHA57 @ Tipperary 31/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 57 · 1m1f Yie 139 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 57 parBHA62 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m Std 132 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 62 par13/0362OR 62BHA60 @ Dundalk 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Std 142 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Cork 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 142 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 60 par24/0460OR 60BHA59 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 59 · 1m31y Gd 141 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA61 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 61 · 1m Yie 131 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 61 par10/0661OR 61BHA61 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 61 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 parBHA60 @ Killarney 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 60 · 1m40y Gd 142 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/0760OR 60projClass-projected finish: 6th of 24
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15KillarneyBHA602nd2nd0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA6113th13th0
2026-06-10LimerickBHA6111th11th0
2026-05-12KillarneyBHA592nd2nd0
2026-04-24CorkBHA605th5th0
2026-03-27DundalkBHA607th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0727/0310/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 24
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 24. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20252nd5/174%83%+0.10
31/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/03/202610th66/10%31%+0.31
27/03/20267th18/15%54%+0.49
24/04/20265th5/174%76%+0.03
12/05/20262nd11/271%93%+0.22
10/06/202611th4/179%29%-0.50
01/07/202613th9/153%29%-0.23
15/07/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34