18
Stepdance
6yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 61
Leopardstown · Renault Ireland Handicap · 1m 1f
#19
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA109 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA62 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Thurles | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Tramore | BHA58 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 24
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 24.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 27/09/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 08/07/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.58 |
| 16/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 01/11/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |