5
Derry Lad
8yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 65
Leopardstown · Fegentri World Championship (Q.R.) Handicap · 1m 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA67 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | BHA68 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | BHA73 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Dundalk | BHA75 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Dundalk | BHA76 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 14th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.60 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 14/10/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 06/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/04/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |