6
Costarmoricain
5yo Gelding · 8-10
Les Sables · Prix Stephane Leignel Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Deauville | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Deauville | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.20 |
| 20/10/2025 | 15th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |