3
Le Central
6yo Gelding · 9-12
Les Sables · Prix Stephane Leignel Handicap · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 54% | -0.17 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.21 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.39 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |