4
Mrs Holiday
5yo Filly · 9-5
Les Sables · Prix Stephane Leignel Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Pornichet | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/01/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 30/01/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/02/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 79% | +0.63 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 71% | +0.66 |