5
Sweet As
6yo Gelding · 8-12
Les Sables · Prix Stephane Leignel Handicap · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
69%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Argentan | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 17/03/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 17/05/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 21% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |