2
Lofsongur Islande
6yo Mare · 9-1
Les Sables · Prix Gilles Tartoue Stakes · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |