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Aslan Senora

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 56

Les Sables · Prix Talmont Saint-hilaire Stakes · 1m 1f 152y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Deauville 20/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m5f202y Std 12820/11C8C0 @ Chantilly 11/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 129C5 @ Pornichet 19/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m3f204y Std 123 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 56 par19/12C5OR 563 @ Chantilly 31/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Chantilly 13/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS13/0233 @ Chantilly 03/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Chantilly 23/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS23/0333 @ Chantilly 28/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f97y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Chantilly 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 1m1f97y Ver 130 · HIGHER CLASS19/053projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-19Chantilly33rd2nd+1
2026-04-28Chantilly37th6th+1
2026-03-23Chantilly37th6th+1
2026-03-03Chantilly31st0th+1
2026-02-13Chantilly35th4th+1
2026-01-31Chantilly31st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1131/0123/0319/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20246th11/486%44%-0.41
11/01/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
19/12/20259th14/126%27%+0.01
31/01/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
13/02/20265th2/189%73%-0.16
03/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
23/03/20267th10/147%57%+0.10
28/04/20267th20/10%57%+0.57
19/05/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60