5
Atanasio
7yo Gelding · 8-11
Les Sables · Prix Talmont Saint-hilaire Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#8
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-04-08 | Senonnes-Pouance | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Pornichet | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Deauville | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 14/07/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 05/08/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 28/04/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |