6
Speedster
5yo Gelding · 8-11
Les Sables · Prix Talmont Saint-hilaire Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | 2 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 21/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 19/02/2026 | 13th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/03/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 77% | -0.05 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 58% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |