3
Twarab
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Les Sables · Prix Talmont Saint-hilaire Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 79% | +0.02 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 58% | -0.30 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 07/02/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 69% | +0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |