8
Cazadero
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Pornichet | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 19/01/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 54% | -0.30 |
| 27/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 25/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 05/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 02/07/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 42% | -0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |