1
Chester Sky
5yo Gelding · 9-8
Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Le Mans | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 21% | -0.31 |
| 05/04/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 21/04/2026 | 13th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 16/06/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |