5
Fromontine
4yo Filly · 9-1
Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-30 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 30/12/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 87% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 18% | -0.48 |