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7

Geopolitic

7yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 65

Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y

#3

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Lyon La Soie 02/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 65 · 1m208y Std 132 · beat its mark02/12/2024 · OR 65 par2/12C5OR 65C5 @ Pornichet 29/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 1m99y Std 128 · beat its mark29/12/2024 · OR 65 parC5 @ Pornichet 28/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m99y Std 128 · beat its mark28/01/2025 · OR 65 par28/01C5OR 65C0 @ Senonnes-Pouance 15/03/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f96y Hvy 131C5 @ Saint-Cloud 14/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f209y Sft 120 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 65 par14/11C5OR 65C5 @ Deauville 13/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 65 · 7f100y Std 120 · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 65 parC5 @ Pornichet 28/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m99y Std 123 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 65 par28/12C5OR 654 @ Pornichet 07/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m99y Std 1323 @ Nantes 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/063projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Nantes36th5th+1
2026-01-07Pornichet49th9th0
2025-12-28Pornichet?5th6th−1
2025-12-13Deauville?8th9th−1
2025-11-14Saint-Cloud?12th13th−1
2025-03-15Senonnes-Pouance?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1215/0328/1216/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/12/20242nd9/276%90%+0.14
29/12/20241st4/998%100%+0.02
28/01/20256th2/189%50%-0.39
15/03/202514th10/147%0%-0.47
14/11/202512th28/10%0%0.00
13/12/20258th22/10%50%+0.50
28/12/20255th6/168%50%-0.18
07/01/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
16/06/20266th40/10%64%+0.64