6
Perihelio
4yo Gelding · 9-1
Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nantes | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 15th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 30/12/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 15/03/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/03/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 73% | +0.10 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 28/07/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |