2
Vivre Libre
4yo Gelding · 9-4
Les Sables · Prix Alain De Montillet Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 152y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Toulouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Pornichet | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Pornichet | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Pornichet | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Pornichet | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Toulouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 10/07/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 19/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |