5
Menlink Du Chabois
4yo Gelding · 9-2
Les Sables · Prix Le Pompier Maiden Stakes · 2m 198y
#7
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Le Lion D'angers | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 05/05/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 11/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |