4
Born A Rebel
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 66
Newmarket · Knight Frank East Anglia Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newmarket | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 12/06/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |