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3yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 70
Newmarket · Knight Frank East Anglia Apprentice Handicap · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-27 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 02/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |