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2

Panelli

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 70

Newmarket · Knight Frank East Anglia Apprentice Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

47%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened account at Lingfield in September on final run for George Boughey. Runner-up twice on all-weather early this year and, after 5-month break, has possibly been working his way back in 2 starts on turf last month. Interesting with visor added (took well to headgear as a 3-y-o).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 08/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m31y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 76 par8/094OR 765 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 1m1y Std 133 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 76 · 5f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 76 par4/124OR 762 @ Chelmsford City 18/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 75 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Southwell 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 133 · beat its mark04/01/2026 · OR 73 par4/015OR 734 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 71 · 1m Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Chelmsford City 12/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 71 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 71 par12/025OR 715 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 72 · 7f3y GF 132 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 1m3y GF 131 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 71 par23/075OR 71projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Yarmouth54th4th0
2026-07-09Epsom Downs54th4th0
2026-02-12Chelmsford City52nd2nd0
2026-01-21Kempton42nd1st+1
2026-01-04Southwell54th4th0
2025-12-18Chelmsford City28th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0918/1212/0223/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20257th9/276%25%-0.51
23/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
04/12/20256th20/10%44%+0.44
18/12/20258th40/10%46%+0.46
04/01/20264th7/163%73%+0.10
21/01/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
12/02/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
09/07/20264th7/163%40%-0.23
23/07/20264th10/382%40%-0.42