2
Emerald Bay
2yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 68
Newmarket · Knight Frank Suffolk Heritage Nursery · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Windsor | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |