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Lord Ragnar

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 75

Newmarket · Knight Frank Suffolk Heritage Nursery · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressed with each of his 3 starts in maidens, overcoming interference to score at Newcastle (7f) in June. Again ran well when second of 5 in nursery at Lingfield 24 days ago and he can make another bold bid up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y GF 12723/0554 @ Leicester 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/0644 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f14y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS25/0645 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 74 · 7f2y Std 135 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 74 par13/075OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-06-25Newcastle41st0th+1
2026-06-08Leicester42nd1st+1
2026-05-23Windsor510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/058/0625/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/05/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
08/06/20262nd66/10%89%+0.89
25/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
13/07/20262nd11/486%75%-0.11