4
Peggy's Lad
2yo Colt · 9-2 · OR 68
Newmarket · Knight Frank Suffolk Heritage Nursery · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 5 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |