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4

Imperial Sovereign

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 76

Newmarket · Knight Frank Eastern Counties Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains without a win since debut but produced his best effort this season when second of 6 at Chester (14.4f) last month, the winner scoring again next time. On a workable mark if able to build on latest effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m4f98y Std 140 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 82 par7/114OR 824 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 81 · 2m102y Std 139 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 81 par3 @ Wolverhampton 29/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 83 · 1m5f219y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 83 par29/113OR 834 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 83 · 2m102y Std 136 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 81 · 1m6f Goo 131 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 81 par26/044OR 812 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 81 · 2m2f140y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m7f196y Gd 138 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par30/054OR 804 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m5f188y Goo 136 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 76 · 1m6f87y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 76 par11/074OR 76projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Chester42nd2nd0
2026-06-27York44th4th0
2026-05-30Chester46th6th0
2026-05-08Chester27th5th+2
2026-04-26Nottingham43rd3rd0
2026-04-09Southwell44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/119/0430/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
20/11/20252nd7/163%89%+0.26
29/11/20253rd6/168%60%-0.08
09/04/20264th6/168%25%-0.43
26/04/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
08/05/20267th14/126%63%+0.36
30/05/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
27/06/20264th12/137%57%+0.20
11/07/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02