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5

Koala Rose

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 78

Newmarket · Knight Frank Eastern Counties Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has taken her form up to a fairly useful level in 3 starts this season, beaten only by a well-in rival in 3-runner handicap at Newbury (13.3f) 20 days ago. Enters calculations as she goes up in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/1222 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/0523 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS19/0634 @ Newbury 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 78 · 1m5f61y GF 131 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 78 par17/074OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Newbury42nd2nd0
2026-06-19Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-05-16Newmarket23rd1st+2
2025-12-20Wolverhampton23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1216/0519/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20253rd11/893%75%-0.18
16/05/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08
19/06/20262nd6/594%89%-0.05
17/07/20262nd7/491%50%-0.41