1
Minhad
4yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 83
Newmarket · Knight Frank Eastern Counties Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Newmarket | 2 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Newbury | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength92%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 20/06/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 10/10/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |