2
King's Castle
9yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69
Newmarket · Knight Frank Handicap · 1m 4f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 30/06/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |