5
Revelio
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 65
Newmarket · Knight Frank Handicap · 1m 4f
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Leicester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 44% | +0.39 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 19/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |