Cappetta
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Penn National · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |