2
Jace Is No Joke
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 77
Penn National · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |