4
Kaz Creed
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 78
Penn National · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |