1
Arrogante
6yo Mare · 8-10
Penn National · Race 3 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |