4
Bugged Out
4yo Filly · 8-11
Penn National · Race 3 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |