6
Chaina
6yo Mare · 8-13
Penn National · Race 3 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 22/01/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |