5
Dancing Chime
5yo Mare · 8-10
Penn National · Race 3 - Ratings Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |