5
Bernie Says So
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Penn National · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |